By Professor Derek H. Aldcroft, Peter Fearon
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Extra resources for British Economic Fluctuations, 1790–1939
Business Cycle Theory There are a large number of different business cycle theories ranging from the vague and eclectic models of earlier writers like Mitchell to the more formal and mathematical models of leading theorists in the subject. It would be neither practical nor very fruitful to examine or even list all the alternatives. It is possible however to simplify matters by classifying theories into two broad categories as follows: (I) endogenous theories which show that the internal structure of the economy is such that it will generate fluctuations once the equilibriumhas been disturbed; and (2) exogenous theories which assert that forces outside the economic structure are responsible for producing fluctuations in economic activity.
386. 3 See Robertson, Study of Industrial Fluctuation, p. 156. 4 J. D. Gould, 'Agricultural Fluctuations and the English Economy in the Eighteenth Century', Journal ofEconomic History, XXII (1962) 319. British Economic Fluctuations, 1790-1939 frequently been asserted that an increase in agricultural production had a stimulating influence and a decrease a depressing effect on economic activity, which put simply means that good harvests would be associated with boom periods and bad harvests with recessions.
This gives rise to a period of retrenchment and consolidation, and not until a new equilibrium is reached, after the initial recovery from the lower turning-point, do conditions become favourable for a renewed burst of innovating activity. Schumpeter employs a complex cyclical pattern the basis of which is the Juglar with the points of inflection located at the neighbourhoods of equilibrium. The Juglar pattern is punctuated by minor waves while the whole scheme is set against the backdrop of the long-wave Kondratieff.